The following players were announced as the Eastern Conference front court All Stars: Julius Randle, Kevin Durant(IR), Jayson Tatum, Nikola Vucevic, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Joel Embiid and Domantas Sabonis(KD replacement). I’ve expressed my issues with the Vucevic selection already and before KD announced he would not play in the All Star game I really did not have an issue with the other All Star selections. A very good argument can be made for Middleton making it over Randle but considering the Knicks are .500 with Randle at the helm and Middleton only being a second option I think the selection to be fair. My problem is I do not believe Sabonis should have made it over Middleton or Bam, but we’ll be focusing on Middleton for now.
A large part of All Star voting is team record and value so let’s break that down. The Bucks sit at 3rd in the East and are just a game back from 1st place with a record of 21-13. After a sluggish start and some very questionable losses the Bucks have found their footing and are on their way to a dominant regular season once again. Giannis is arguably a top 3 MVP candidate, Bobby Portis is in my top 3 for 6MOTY and of course they have Middleton as their second option. The Pacers on the other hand have been off to a rocky 32 game start like most of the other teams in the Eastern Conference. They sit at 9th in the East but are just a game and a half back from 4th seed with a record of 15-17. Sabonis is still their best player, Myles is top 5 in the DPOY race, the Nate Bjorken hiring has been a massive success and they have about 70 points sitting on their bench in LeVert, Warren and Lamb. This team is much better than their losing record would indicate but that doesn’t change the fact that it is a losing record and Sabonis has not been so great at the helm, at least not better than Middleton in my eyes.
We’ll begin their individual break down as we always do, with their scoring. I’m taking Middleton as a scorer with ease. His efficiency lead and 3 level scoring ability jumps Sabonis’ superior production. Although Middleton does tend to play against second units and definitely benefits from Giannis’ gravity, it doesn’t change that his play style is more valuable than Sabonis’ black hole post playstyle. Hence, Middleton’s lead in score value.
Their passing and playmaking is a bit reminiscent of Trae Young’s and Ben Simmon’s. Despite what the metrics say, I still think Sabonis is a better passer than Middleton from an eye test perspective. Sabonis’ delivery speed, timing and ability to exploit tight angles at nearly 7 foot is much more valuable than Middleton’s above average facilitation ability. I also think Middleton benefits from playing in a system that revolves around one of the best rollers and cutters in the league. I’m not saying Nate’s system is bad but it pales in comparison to Bud’s which has both the plan and personnel. Indiana lacks the latter which is no fault of Sabonis therefore I will not punish him for that.
Their rebounding isn’t close and weighing it’s importance is not easy. 22% of Middleton’s 6.1 boards are contested while 38.9% of Sabonis’ 11.4 boards are contested. It’s not a hot take to say a center has to grab more contested boards but the ability to grab them is valuable regardless. I’ll weigh this slightly but I don’t believe it to be something that puts Sabonis over Middleton.
Although this has been a down year for Middleton defensively he is still a mile better than Sabonis who has been one of the worst defenders in the league this season. His -2.1 D-RAPTOR ranks bottom 75 amongst all players and his 113 DRtg puts the Pacers at a sub bottom 10 defense. When he’s off the floor however the Pacers have 105 DRtg which is the best in the league(courtesy of Myles Turner). He is a traffic cone on defense and he doesn’t have one thing going for him on that end. He isn’t long or athletic so he can’t block or alter shots, he’s very slow so he can’t switch onto anyone outside of a center and he can’t even guard those and his floor awareness is not good at all. This inability to be effective on the defensive end is a large reason why I did not have Sabonis on my All Star ballot.
Their impact and their defense go hand in hand, once again Middleton has a solid lead statistically but logically that lead minimizes. Obviously Sabonis is more impactful than a -10 something net rating, he’s the best player on a playoff bound team and a second option on a team with a top 5 player cannot be more impactful than that. However, I will once again reference Sabonis playstyle and defense to help you understand why I don’t believe this logical impact lead to be genuine. Despite his high level passing ability, his post offense is borderline ball stopping and his inability to stretch the floor makes him and the Pacers extremely easy to defend. Combine that with his nonexistent defense and that logical impact gap isn’t looking too big. And to me it’s not big enough to overcome the statistical gap.
Before I summarize my findings let me just clarify I have no problem with Sabonis making the All Star game despite everything I just said. No, I do not think he should have made it over Bam and Middleton but I most certainly do not think that he doesn’t belong there. He is a premier talent that can produce an efficient 25 point triple double and is capable of leading his team to regular season wins as we saw last season. However, when you look at these players individually and add in their team’s success and their value to that team it is really hard for me to see a valid argument for having Sabonis over Bam and Middleton.
Analysis aside Pacers fans should be extremely happy and excited for what the future holds for Sabonis and the Pacers. Adding scoring wings like LeVert and Warren to Sabonis will only make the team better and I predict just that to happen. They’ll be a top 6ish seed and give whoever they play in the first round a fair fight.
CubeHoops 