My 3rd player comparison article 3 days in a row, this is taking me back to my off-season days. I have one more coming before I get back to the more creative content but for now we are here. Both these guards are on hot streaks as of the last two weeks or so and such NBA media has pulled the two together, me including. As always I’ll break down each aspect of their games using statistics, film and my analysis of the two to determine who I believe to be the better player from the most objective standpoint possible. Let’s get into it.
Beginning with their scoring, Donovan Mitchell takes the early lead. Although his efficiency is not at the level it should be given his situation, he is still a high caliber shot creator, tough shot maker and has a knack for scoring at all 3 levels. He is shooting a career high 39.6% from 3 on 8.6 attempts per game! That becomes even crazier when we factor in that 48% of those 3s are unassisted. Donovan uses his long strides to create separation and with that 6’10 wingspan it’s almost impossible to get out and contest his shot once he’s in the shooting motion. Inside the 3PT line he is shooting 41% from midrange on 8 attempts and 58% at the rim on 4.5 attempts. It is evident that Mitchell’s scoring game is a little jumpshot reliant and understandably so as he’s just 6’1 on a good day. He is an elite jump shooter but it often leads to off-nights which he’s discovered this season. Outside of his shooting percentages, he ranks 56th percentile in isolation, 21st percentile in transition, 96th percentile on spot ups, 70th percentile on handoffs, and 99th percentile off cuts. I don’t believe that isolation value to be entirely accurate, you’d be crazy to think Donovan Mitchell is just a middle of the pack isolation creator but the rest of the values I understand. The Jazz as a team rank 17th percentile in transition with a bottom 15 possession frequency. In other words, Mitchell does not get a lot of looks in transition because the Jazz as a team do not create them. His spot up shooting has been money with the Jazz creating so many open threes with fast ball movement and his handoffs with Rudy Gobert have been almost guaranteed points since he got into the league. He’s an explosive athlete, if Mitchell beats his man off a backdoor cut you best believe he’s going to try and rip the rim off, regardless of whether or not there is a rim protector there. All this should not come as a surprise, I’m just laying it out so that it is perfectly understood where I stand with Mitchell as a scorer. However, I do not believe the gap to be monumentally large despite the PPG difference. Jrue is just a tier below Mitchell as a scorer just off pure talent, the only reason there is a gap on the stat sheet is because Jrue has a 17 lower load value. Mitchell is maintaining an offensive load of 51.3, which ranks 11th in the entire league compared to Jrue who has just a 34.3 load. I’m not saying if Jrue had Donovan’s load he would be putting up similar numbers, rather I am simply pointing out that the PPG disparity is not entirely accurate because of the differing offensive roles. Keep that in mind as you read this article.
Jrue’s Scoring:
Mitchell’s cutting:
Mitchell’s 3PT creation:
Jrue’s efficiency(LEFT), Mitchell’s efficiency(RIGHT)
As passers and playmakers, it is close. Donovan has his moments where he threads an impossible needle to find a cutter or Gobert at the rim but he also has his moments where you just ask why he is handling the ball. Their cTOV% is equal, but you are kidding yourself if you think Mitchell is as smart and disciplined a passer as Jrue. Taking a look at their offensive overview on cleaningtheglass.com , Donovan ranks 86th percentile in AST% to Jrue’s 72nd and 44th percentile in AST:USG to Jrue’s 70th percentile ranking. Taking a look at their film, one can see that although Jrue is not as advanced a passer as Mitchell, he is safer and makes the right reads faster. I side with Jrue’s safer and considerate passing to Mitchell’s exciting and risky passing. As playmakers, it is close but Mitchell has a solid lead due to his superior scoring gravity. He ranks 81st percentile in rim gravity, 90th percentile in midrange gravity, and 99nd percentile in 3PT gravity. On the other side, Jrue ranks 93rd percentile in rim gravity, 76th percentile in midrange gravity and 85th percentile in 3PT gravity. The value of Mitchell’s 3 level scoring reveals itself, as he is able to create open looks for his teammates at a higher rate than Jrue because he’s drawing more attention at all levels of the floor at all times. Mitchell also assists on 3% more layups than Jrue, mostly due to the system he plays in but also because he opens up more in the half court as I’ve just pointed out. Although I do believe Mitchell to have a solid hold on playmaking, it would be a disservice to cast Jrue off as a bad playmaker. See the film below if you don’t know much about Jrue’s playmaking.
Jrue’s passing and playmaking:
Both are small guards on teams with dominant rebounding big men so I will not look into their rebounding.
The defense is not close and it’s where I believe Jrue puts some distance between himself and Mitchell. Jrue is comfortably a top 15 defender, top 3 guard defender and one of the best containers in the game at his height. He gets in passing lanes, disrupts actions and even comes across the weak side for a block. He’s forced 76 turnovers, blocked 12 shots, deflected 117 passes, recovered 24 loose balls, contested 235 shots and stole the ball 68 times, all this season. Mitchell on the other hand has not raised his defensive intensity despite being on one of the best defensive teams in the NBA. In fact, his defense has been detrimental to the Jazz. As soon as he steps off the court the Jazz DRtg goes from 110 to 104 which is far and away the best DRtg in the NBA. With Mitchell’s high offensive load, it’s understandable why he’s less inclined to try on defense but that does not mean he should be excused from it. Although guards are the least impactful defensive position, Mitchell’s inability to defend impacts the next two things I am going to cover and it’s a large reason why I have Jrue over him.
Jrue’s defense:
Onto the next category, their impact. Throughout the 4 impact stats I use they are split down the middle, Jrue winning in Net on/off and RAPTOR while Mitchell leading in LEBRON and BPM. However impact goes beyond the advanced stats, we have to use some sort of common sense and context to put them into perspective. Jrue is the more impactful player because he gives you something on both sides of the basketball. No, he is not Mitchell on offense but he can provide efficient scoring in volume while also making plays for others. Combine that with his defense, which is clear of Mitchell’s, and Jrue’s case for being more impactful is strong.
Lastly, their playoff resilience. We’ve seen the two in the playoffs before, Donovan Mitchell more recently and the skill sets I’ve described have been on full display for both. In Jrue’s case, his elite containment and two man game with Anthony Davis catapulted the Pelicans over the Trailblazers with ease. In Mitchell’s case, his elite scoring and playmaking in the bubble got the Jazz a 3-1 lead over the higher seeded Nuggets despite not winning the series. What needs to be pointed out is the downfall of that series and what Mitchell has struggled with in the past. Yes, his scoring was elite but take a look at the other things he was doing on the floor. His defense was not great and his passing was all over the place, averaging 4.6 APG to 4.0 TOV. Among multiple other struggles, his ball handling is largely what cost the Jazz game 7 vs the Nuggets on the 2nd to last offensive possession for the Jazz and it’s not the first time this has happened. The year before against the Rockets, Mitchell averaged 4.2 TOV to 3.2 APG. That flashy passing has come back to bite him and the Jazz twice now which means it’s something to consider when speaking on his playoff resilience. Mitchell’s bubble production was not anywhere near sustainable it’s hard to say that his scoring outweighs that destructive passing because in a regular setting with a scalable sample size those PPG numbers go down. Jrue on the other hand, his game translates just fine against elite defenses and we’ve seen evidence of that. Jrue is the more resilient player because he can give you scoring and playmaking that is comparable to Mitchell’s while being a better passer and defender.
I have Jrue Holiday over Donovan Mitchell because although he does not offer the same level of scoring and playmaking, he does offer a high level of both which combined with his superior passing, defense and playoff resilience is enough evidence for me to favor him.
CubeHoops 