Another day another player comparison that has picked up pace as the NBA season rolls on. Damian Lillard has been scorching hot as of late, leading a recovering Blazers team into the playoffs in a tough Western conference while Jimmy Butler has gotten both himself and the Miami Heat back on track after missing time with COVID. The two are consensus top 12 players and dominate the game of basketball on opposing ends of the floor. I’ll be breaking down their strengths and weaknesses in each aspect of their respective games to determine who is the better player from the most objective standpoint possible. Let’s get started.
Beginning with their scoring, Dame takes the cake with ease. On the season he’s averaging an insane 29.6 PPG on 62 TS% with a teammate spacing rating of 117. CJ McCollum has missed time, Nurkic has missed time and outside of those two the Blazers are extremely thin in the offensive production department, hence why they got Norman Powell. At any rate, Dame’s scoring to keep the Blazers afloat has been nothing short of amazing and he deserves every bit of praise for it. However, I would be remiss to leave Butler out to dry. On the season he’s averaging his normal 21.2 PPG on 58 TS% with horrible jump shooting splits but an absurd FTr and finishing numbers. While Dame does a majority of his damage from beyond the 3 point line, 38% on 10.9 3PA(!!), Butler prefers to work inside the arc. Jimmy is shooting 70% at the rim on 6.8 attempts and 36% on 7.2 midrange attempts. Now if you’ve watched any more than 5 minutes of Jimmy Butler you know these “midrange” shots are essentially paint shots as a majority of them come a shade outside of the paint. See the shot chart and film below to understand what I’m referring to. Butler has found a way to still be an elite scorer despite being a horrid long range shooter and this speaks to his versatility and adaptability. His cuts, curls and alley oops are timed to perfection and when he gets cut off he’s an adept foul drawer to keep the play alive, maintaining a 54.6 FTr. With all that said, Lillard is still the better scorer.
Jimmy Butler’s Shot Chart on the left, Damian Lillard’s shot chart on the right
An example of Jimmy Butler’s cutting:
Example of Jimmy’s foul drawing:
Example of Jimmy’s “midrange”:
Onto their passing and playmaking, it’s a nail biter in both regards. As passers, both are exceptional at finding openings under the rim for their teammates as they average the same rLayup AST%. Their APG are practically identical as is their cTOV% and passer rating. Butler ranks 98th percentile in AST%, 100th percentile in AST:USG, and 72nd percentile in TOV%. Dame ranks 80th percentile in AST%, 32nd percentile in AST:USG and 80th percentile in TOV%. From a film standpoint, Butler is an extremely decisive and safe passer, whipping the ball to his teammates before the defense can react while Dame is a little more traditional with his passing, often passing out of his PnR’s or lobbing it up to whoever’s rolling. I’m going to side with Butler as a passer but a perfectly fair argument can be made for Dame. As playmakers, it is also very close. Dame’s gravity extends beyond the paint, ranking 89th percentile in rim gravity, 85th percentile in midrange gravity and 98th percentile in 3 point gravity. Butler on the other hand ranks 92nd percentile in rim gravity, 87th percentile in midrange gravity and 10th percentile in 3 point gravity. No surprises there. I am laying out these values to demonstrate the attention gap between the two, and why I think Dame to be the better playmaker. His ability to bend and break defenses as soon as he steps over the half court line is something Butler just does not have the ability to do and even with his below average finishing, Dame still demands attention at the rim therefore getting his teammates open looks on dump offs or kick outs. Everything I just laid out explains why Dame leads in Box Creation and PlayVal.
Jimmy running PnR:
The two are not close as defenders, Jimmy is clearly better. What needs to be highlighted here is just how bad Damian Lillard is. His off-ball defense is Trae Young level bad and at just 6’2 there isn’t much he can do on-ball. He’s extremely lazy, has low IQ and is a defined negative on that end. Although I’m not a fan of advanced defensive metrics for perimeter defenders, Dame ranks 4th WORST in Defensive RAPTOR and 2nd WORST in D-LEBRON. So when I say he is a negative on that end, I mean he is one of the biggest negatives in the league. See the clip below to understand just how bad his off-ball defense is. Comparatively, Butler is comfortably a top 5 wing defender and easily a top 15 defender overall. He excels in passing lanes, is an inhumane manipulator and has a motor like he’s fighting for a roster spot on the Heat. He has all the intangibles on that end and it translates to the stat sheet. The Heat go from a 106 DRtg to a 113 DRtg as soon as Jimmy Butler steps off the floor. That is an insane swing for a wing. The gap between the two is immense.
Damian Lillard’s horrid off-ball defense:
Their impact is a little messy due to their differing playstyles. As I just pointed out, Jimmy’s impact on the Heat’s defense is clear but at the same time so is Dame’s impact on Portland’s offense. The Blazers go from a 120 ORtg to a 110 ORtg once Dame steps off the floor even with guys like Powell, CJ and Kanter who are known for their offense. Dame’s playmaking, shot creation and shot making are sorely missed when he’s on the bench and it’s why I highlighted his carry job at the beginning of this article. However just because Dame is an elite offensive engine, it does not excuse his lackluster production on the defensive end. I believe Jimmy to be the more impactful player because although he gives you worse scoring and playmaking in comparison to Lillard, it’s still very high level scoring and playmaking. To help you understand what I mean, let’s look at the Heat’s stretch during and after Jimmy got COVID. Without Jimmy the Heat went 4-11 including a disastrous 5 game losing streak. Since he returned from COVID(29 games), he’s averaging 22.3 PPG on 60 TS%. Just 1 PPG and 1% above his season averages but the point does not lay in the production, rather the record. With him the Heat boast a record of 19-10. Combine that with his defense and I think Butler has a strong case for being more impactful.
Lastly we have their playoff resilience. Butler is coming off a historic finals run next to Bam Adebayo as they took down the 1st seeded Bucks, 3rd seeded Celtics, and took the eventual champs to 6 as the 5th seed. Butler’s adept foul drawing and off ball play were evident in all 4 series while still being the elite defender he is. While Butler was thriving, Dame’s production was taking another sharp dip in the first round against the Lakers. Although his efficiency was still good, going from 30 PPG to 24 PPG is something to take note of, especially when it’s a continued trend. Dame being heavily reliant on tough 3 pointers hurts him in the playoffs as coaches just blitz his high PnR’s and force him to drive to the rim which is his biggest scoring weakness. As I mentioned earlier, he’s just 6’2 and unlike Kyrie he is not good at contorting his body to adjust to contact. He’s not big and strong as Luka and he’s not as smart as Steph who will switch hands, jump off the opposing foot or ball fake to get the advantage over whatever rim protector is challenging him. Although his playmaking and passing are elite in the regular season, Dame struggles when the post season rolls around. His turnover numbers spike and his assists numbers dip all because he can’t figure out how to beat doubles or complex coverages. Given the evidence I think Jimmy’s playoff resilience is clear of Dame’s.
Lillard’s shot chart in the 2018-19 playoffs
I have Jimmy Butler above Damian Lillard because I believe his passing, defense and impact are enough to overcome Dame’s superior scoring and playmaking. I can understand that two of the things I just mentioned can be argued, but this is just the side I’ve taken given the evidence I’ve compiled. Like I said, the two are fringe superstars and are extremely close in my rankings, just one space apart in fact. I’ll entertain an argument for Lillard, but for now I have Butler.
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